The final round of European group stage matches hit the field this week before they shut up shop ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
While some teams, like Tottenham and Marseille, see Champions league knockout qualification come down to the final day, others like Liverpool and Napoli will be fighting for placement in the standings having already confirmed a knockout place.
Today, it’s all about Group D as the aforementioned Tottenham travels to France to face Marseille, and Sporting CP hosts Eintracht Frankfurt. All four of those teams can secure advancement with a win, but are at serious peril with dropped points.
Meanwhile, Club Brugge and Porto are both in play having already secured a knockout round place, but both will attempt to finish atop Group B as they take on Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid respectively.
Outside of European continental football, there are six matches in the English Championship, with second-place Blackburn on the road at Coventry, and fourth-placed Sheffield also in action. There are two matches in the Brazilian Serie A, including Atletico Mineiro, who are battling for a Copa Libertadores place.
Liverpool vs. Napoli prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Napoli to win
- Odds: +295 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Napoli to win
You’re going to give me the best team in Europe based on form, Napoli, at gargantuan odds? Are you kidding me? The absolute disrespect here for Napoli, a team which has bulldozed everyone in its path this season — including this very Liverpool team — is astonishing. Napoli crushed Liverpool 4-1 last time they met back in early September, and it was a deserved hammering, with the Italian club putting up 4.10 xG in the process. Napoli haven’t even dropped a single point in any competition since August 31 at home against Lecce in Serie A, on a 13-match winning streak. And it’s not like there’s nothing to play for here…these two teams are battling for the top spot in the group. I realize it’s at Anfield, one of the tougher places to play, but if Napoli drop points here, so be it. At these insane odds, this pick is a no-brainer. — Kyle Bonn
Marseille vs. Tottenham prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Marseille win 1H / Tottenham win 2H
- Odds: +850
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Tottenham
We’re going big here, because there’s sufficient evidence to back it up — you’re be hard-pressed to find two teams that profile through matches more opposite than these two. In league play this season, Marseille are a clear first-half team, putting up 10.28 xG and 12 goals while conceding just 5.75 xG and four goals. In the second half, they’re reversed, dropping to 11.35 xG (and 8.34 xGOT, indicating miserable finishing) and 10 goals scored, while conceding 9.32 xG and 7 goals.
Tottenham are the complete opposite. In the first half of Premier League play, they put up just 7.57 xG and concede 6.85 xG, scoring 9 goals and conceding eight. They come to life after the break, with 13.88 xG and 17 goals scored, while conceding 7.49 xG and 8 total goals. If there’s ever to have a game of two halves, this is it, so we’ll reach for the home run. — Kyle Bonn
| Pick | Caesars (USA) |
Sports Interaction (Canada) |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille win 1H / Tottenham win 2H | +850 | —* |
Sports Interaction offers Halftime/Fulltime (Marseille/Tottenham) at 27.00 odds.
Yesterday’s picks
A tough day for the Sporting News pickers was saved in the late slate as Fluminense picked up all three points on the road at Ceara. The white-hot German Cano provided a 73rd minute winner to continue his hot streak and push Fluminense into fourth, level on points with Flamengo with just three matches to go.
The rest of the slate was a dud. Elche, somehow, managed to go a full 90 minutes without picking up a single yellow card, and they missed a late penalty which would have earned a point. Monza took a lead early in the second half over Bologna, only to cough it up minutes later, while Giresunspor never came close to testing Istanbul Basaksehir.
| Picks | ✔️ or ❌ |
|---|---|
| Elche over 3 yellow cards (Bonn, +120) |
❌ |
| Fluminense to win (Bonn, +145) |
✔️ |
| Monza to win & 2+ goals scored (Borg, +175) |
❌ |
| Giresunspor double chance (Borg, +145) |
❌ |
Soccer best bets records
Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3.
| Kyle Bonn | Simon Borg | |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bets (Won-Lost-Push) |
40.0% (30-47-1) |
32.4% (12-25-1) |
| Total Units (+ Won / – Lost) |
-5.75 | -11.55 |
| Match Predictions (Correct picks) |
51.4% (37 of 72) |
50.0% (19 of 38) |
