The NFL’s MVP award has become synonymous with the league’s best quarterback over the past decade. The previous nine MVP award winners all played QB, with Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson serving as the last non-QB to win the award in 2012. As such, it’s no surprise that QBs like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes had the shortest preseason odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP.
Through the first week of the season, the top-15 players in the 2022 MVP odds are all quarterbacks. It’s becoming more difficult for oddsmakers and the betting public to make a case for a non-QB to win the award. There are some decent sleeper/long-shot non-QB candidates (Justin Jefferson, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey), but your money is almost always better spent on a signal-caller.
When Peterson won the award in ’12, he had 2,097 rushing yards on 348 carries and 12 touchdowns. That year, Peterson beat out Peyton Manning, who threw for 4,659 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. As you can see, for a non-QB to win the league’s MVP, they have to do something incredible. Peterson was also the last winner to be on a team that didn’t finish first or second in its conference. Clearly, winning can trump stats in this QB-dominant era.
Last season, there was a slight chance that a non-QB could’ve won the award, as Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor had outstanding seasons for their respective teams. Kupp finished third in the voting behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers after winning the league’s triple-crown for receiving with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. Taylor did not finish in the top three of voting but had an outstanding season for a running back with 2,171 total yards and 20 total TDs on 372 touches, but it still wasn’t enough to even sniff the trophy.
The favorites for the NFL MVP have not changed heading into Week 9. Bills QB Josh Allen is still the betting favorite at +110 odds. Allen did not have his best performance in Week 8, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. However, the Bills still defeated the Packers 27-17, extending their winning streak to four games. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has the second-best odds (+350) to win MVP after he threw four touchdown passes last week against the Steelers to help Philadelphia stay undefeated.
If you do not want to bet on the current favorites, some sleepers are starting to emerge for MVP who could provide some value. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is sitting at 11/1 (+1100) after the Ravens defeated Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last week on Thursday night. Jackson completed 27-of-38 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns in the five-point win. The former league MVP will look to improve his odds on Monday Night Football against the Saints. Another sleeper to watch out for is Seahawks QB Geno Smith, who has +4000 odds after leading Seattle to a 14-point win over the Giants in Week 8. Smith has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 1,924 yards, 13 TDs, and three interceptions. If the veteran quarterback can continue to play well and have the Seahawks above .500, Smith will see his odds improve.
Finally, for the non-QBs heading into Week 9, Christian McCaffrey has the shortest odds to win the NFL MVP (+6600). The star running back shined in the 49ers’ 31-14 win over the Rams last week, scoring a touchdown hat trick. If he stays healthy, McCaffrey will play a significant role in San Francisco’s offense as he can be a new weapon for head coach Kyle Shanahan. The 26-year-old won’t be able to improve his odds this week as the 49ers have a bye.
Below, we’ll provide a snapshot of where the MVP odds stand and who provides the most value heading into Week 9.
| Player | Odds |
| Josh Allen | +110 |
| Jalen Hurts | +350 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +450 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1100 |
| Joe Burrow | +2500 |
| Justin Herbert | +4000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +4000 |
| Geno Smith | +4000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +6600 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +8000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +12500 |
| Matthew Stafford | +12500 |
| Derrick Henry | +12500 |
| Kyler Murray | +12500 |
| Tom Brady | +12500 |
| Justin Jefferson | +12500 |
| Daniel Jones | +12500 |
| Micah Parsons | +15000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +20000 |
| Derek Carr | +20000 |
| Nick Chubb | +20000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +20000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +20000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +20000 |
| Russell Wilson | +20000 |
| Davante Adams | +20000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +20000 |
