A total of 24 teams enter Week 17 still in playoff contention – a nod to the high-level of entertainment value in the NFL in the last two weeks.
There also are eight head-to-head matchups where both teams still have some level of playoff hope. None of those matchups are more-anticipated than the Monday Night Football thriller between Cincinnati and Buffalo. That is the first head-to-head meeting between MVP candidates Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. That is a fitting MNF finale, but there are some great matchups on the schedule.
The winner of the Patriots-Dolphins matchup on Sunday controls their playoff destiny heading into Week 18 in the AFC. Green Bay is trying to make another late playoff run, and division rival Minnesota could be the one to slam that door shut at Lambeau Field. The Buccaneers and Panthers have losing records but play in a huge NFC South matchup that could determine the division winner.
Huge games come all in sizes, and this week – and next week – will be no exception. With that in mind, a look at our track record heading into Week 17:
Record: 150-88-2, .629
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 17 (lines courtesy of BetMGM):
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Packers climb in playoff picture; Steelers jump Patriots, Jets for Week 17
NFL picks, predictions for Week 17
- Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) at Tennessee Titans
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Titans are on a five-game losing streak, and they have a -5 turnover ratio in that skid. With Ryan Tannehill out, the passing offense has been limited. The Cowboys are 3-3 S/U on the road, and Tennessee ranks second in the NFL against the run. Dak Prescott must deliver through the air in a tight one.
Pick: Cowboys 26, Titans 20
- Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Two teams are limping down the stretch. Atlanta has averaged just 14 points per game in a four-game losing streak, and Desmond Ridder is having rookie growing pains. Arizona averages 15.6 points in a five-game losing skid. It’s an ugly one, but the Cardinals pull off a light upset.
Pick: Cardinals 20, Falcons 18
- Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Lions allowed 320 rushing yards in a Week 16 loss to Carolina, their worst showing since allowing 258 yards against the Bears in Week 10. Detroit still has playoff hopes, however, and they are at home where they have won three of their last four. We’re counting on a Lions’ bounce-back against a spoiler trying to break a nine-game losing streak.
Pick: Lions 31, Bears 24
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Jaguars have become bettors’ friends by winning four of their last five games, but they lost 13-6 to the Texans in the first meeting in Week 5. Jacksonville also is 0-3 S/U as a favorite in 2022. Does that make this game a dangerous trap spot? Not with the way Trevor Lawrence is playing. He has 11 TDs and just one INT in those last five games.
Pick: Jaguars 25, Texans 19
- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Broncos have bottomed out, and now they face the Chiefs – who have won 14 straight in this AFC West rivalry and are hanging on to home-field advantage in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes is 10-0 with a 95.4 passer rating against Denver, too. What about the spread? The Chiefs are 0-3 ATS when favored by more than 10 points.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Broncos 17
- Miami Dolphins (-1) at New England Patriots
Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS
The winner controls their own destiny in the AFC Wild Card race. The Dolphins are 3-5 on the road and in the midst of a four-game losing streak. The Patriots are 3-4 at home and have lost four of five games. Miami won the first meeting 20-7 in Week 1 and has a chance to win five in a row in the series. Bill Belichick gets in the way.
Pick: Patriots 27, Dolphins 24
- Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Giants are still in the playoff hunt, and they beat the other three AFC South teams by an average of five points per game. Saquon Barkley averaged 5.3 yards per carry the last two weeks, and he should have a nice game against a Colts’ defense coming off a short week. New York clinches a playoff spot under first-year coach Brian Daboll in the process.
Pick: Giants 27, Colts 21
- New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Jalen Hurts (shoulder) remains uncertain for the matchup, but the offense proved it can still operate at a high level with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Andy Dalton has taken just five sacks in the last four games, so the Eagles’ pressure must land. Philadelphia cleans up the turnovers from last week and clinches home-field advantage in the NFC.
Pick: Eagles 28, Saints 20
- Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Buccaneers still have a one-game lead in the NFC South, and they are clinging to that lead. Tom Brady has thrown two interceptions each of the last three weeks, and the Panthers beat the Bucs 21-3 in Week 7. The Panthers rushed for 173 yards in that game and are coming off a 320-yard outburst against the Lions. The Buccaneers are 1-4 S/U in their last five games when favored by three points or less. Will Brady buck that trend?
Pick: Buccaneers 25, Panthers 20
- Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Washington cannot afford to slip up here if it wants to make the NFC Wild Card, not with the teams lurking behind them. The Commanders have allowed an average of 145.5 rushing yards per game the last four weeks. The Browns have been inconsistent, but they have averaged just 15 points per game since Deshaun Watson’s return. Cleveland is dangerous in a nothing-to-lose-spot here.
Pick: Browns 20, Commanders 17
- San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Bay Area battle will likely be one-sided. The 49ers are a Super Bowl contender, and Brock Purdy has passed for at least two TDs in four straight games. The Raiders are still technically in the AFC playoff race, but turnovers and an inability to run the football have got in the way. New starter Jarrett Stidham isn’t going to fix that against the NFL’s best defense. San Francisco pours it on in the second half, and George Kittle continues his hot streak in the process.
Pick: 49ers 33, Raiders 23
- New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (Pick ’em)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Both teams are still in the wild-card hunt, but which team can snap a losing streak? The Jets have lost four in a row, and Mike White is back in for Zach Wilson. Seattle has lost three in a row, and they are just 3-4 at home. This will be a close call.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Jets 24
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Aaron Rodgers is trying to lead the Packers to a last-minute playoff run, and it runs through the NFC North teams they lost to the first time around. How much will Lambeau Field make a difference? Green Bay is 15-0 in December under Matt LaFleur. If they want to add to that, they better find a better defensive plan against Justin Jefferson – who had 184 yards and two TDs in the first game and has three straight 100-yard games to his credit. Betting against Rodgers in this spot?
Pick: Packers 28, Vikings 24
- Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
It’s the Battle of Los Angeles. The Rams are in an unexpected spoiler role, but Baker Mayfield has played well in two starts at SoFi Stadium. He averages 230 yards with four Tds and no interceptions in those games. The Chargers have heated up with Justin Herbert, but this one will be close.
Pick: Chargers 30, Rams 24
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Sunday, 8:20 pm., NBC
This game was flexed down, and it is tough to pick knowing that Lamar Jackson’s status remains uncertain. Baltimore won the first meeting 16-14 despite rushing for just 94 yards. Three Pittsburgh turnovers helped. With the Ravens still set up to possibly win the AFC North, the home-field advantage matters.
Pick: Ravens 21, Steelers 17
- Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
This is a mega-Monday Night Football matchup with all sorts of implications, and it could be foreshadowing for the AFC Divisional playoffs. The Bengals have won seven straight games, and they covered the spread all seven times in that stretch. Buffalo has lost two road games by a combined total of five points this season. This matchup will not disappoint, but we’re going to stick with the home team – and the over.
Pick: Bengals 31, Bills 28
