Baker Mayfield and the Rams will look to win their third-straight game over an AFC West team on New Year’s Day when they play Justin Herbert and the Chargers in the Battle for L.A. at SoFi Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The Rams are coming off a dominant 51-14 win over the Broncos on Christmas, while the Chargers punched their ticket to the postseason with a 20-3 win on Monday Night Football over the Colts.
This season has not gone to plan for the defending Super Bowl champions, who have a 5-10 record and lost multiple star players to injury. However, the Rams are still playing hard with their fourth starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield.
As for the Chargers, they’ve won four out of their past five games, which put them in a position to clinch a playoff berth last week. Heading into this week’s game, the Chargers still have something to play for, as they likely want to stay out of the sixth and seven seeds in the AFC playoffs to avoid either Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals in the wild-card round.
WEEK 17 NFL PICKS: ATS | Straight up
Below, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Rams-Chargers, including the updated odds from BetMGM, tips, and our prediction for this Week 17 matchup.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Spread: Chargers -6.5
- Over/Under: 43
- Moneyline: Rams +240; Chargers -340
The Chargers are almost touchdown favorites heading into Sunday’s game. L.A. has been decent against the spread at home this season (3-3-1), but it’s 5-4-1 ATS as a favorite. For the total, we could see a lot of points scored in this late-afternoon matchup, as the Rams and Chargers are both giving up 22.9 points per game this season.
Rams vs. Chargers all-time series
The Rams lead the all-time series against the Chargers with a record of 7-5 and have won three out of the five past matchups. The last time these two teams played each other, the Rams defeated the Chargers 35-23 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 3 of the 2018 season. The starting quarterbacks in that matchup were Jared Goff and Philip Rivers.
Three trends to know
— The Rams are 3-1 against the spread in their past four games and have won two of those games straight up as an underdog, according to Bryan Zarpentine of BetQL.
— Rams head coach Sean McVay is 31-18 straight up on the moneyline in road games, according to BetQL.
— The Chargers are 7-1 straight up in their past eight games when listed as the favorite.
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Three things to watch for
Can Herbert get back on track?
The Chargers have played better as of late, winning their past three games, but Herbert hasn’t looked great under center. In last week’s win over the Colts, he completed 24-of-31 passes for 235 yards and an interception. Herbert has not thrown a touchdown pass since Week 14, but he has thrown three interceptions in the past two games.
Los Angeles hopes the young signal-caller can get back on track against the Rams’ 22nd-ranked pass defense that allows 226.5 yards per game this season. However, they’ve shown improvement over the past three games, giving up just 187.7 passing yards per outing. This is a good test for Herbert, who needs to get back into shape before the playoff begins.
Cam Akers vs. the Chargers’ run defense
Akers has re-established himself as the Rams’ feature back, posting 408 yards and six touchdowns over the past eight games. He’s coming off a tremendous outing last week against the stingy Broncos’ defense where he recorded 147 total yards and three rushing touchdowns on 25 touches.
Akers has a chance for another good performance this week against one of the league’s worst run defenses. This season, L.A. allows the seventh-most yards per game (140.5) and 5.3 yards per carry (second-most in the NFL). Expect Akers to have another huge workload on Sunday to take pressure off Baker Mayfield and the Rams’ lackluster passing game.
Baker Mayfield continues to build his resume for next season
Mayfield looked sharp in leading Los Angeles to a 51-14 win last week against the Broncos. The veteran QB completed 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns. He’s starting to figure it out in Sean McVay’s system and putting himself in a position to be a starter somewhere next season. In his three games with the Rams, Mayfield is completing 69 percent of his passes for 571 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. If he can lead the Rams to an upset win over the Chargers on Sunday, he could be one of the top free-agent options at QB in the offseason.
Stat that matters
21. That’s the number of takeaways the Chargers have produced this season. Los Angeles’ defense is playing well at the right time and had a stellar performance last week against the Colts, sacking Nick Foles seven times and forcing him into three interceptions. The Chargers forced two or more turnovers in three of the past four games and will look to hassle the turnover-prone Baker Mayfield into a few mistakes.
Rams vs. Chargers prediction
Sunday’s game means more to the Chargers, but don’t completely overlook the Rams, who haven’t thrown in the towel quite yet. The Rams are 1-5 on the road this season but 3-4-2 ATS as an underdog. The Chargers took care of business against Colts last week and should ultimately do the same against the Rams by at least a touchdown, but bettors will have to sweat it out and hope against a backdoor cover.
PREDICTION: Chargers 27, Rams 20. The Chargers will cover (-6.5), and the total will go OVER (43).
