We have reached a pivotal point of the World Series. With a win Wednesday, the Houston Astros would square things up and reclaim home-field advantage with two of the final three scheduled games set to take place in Houston.
If the underdog Philadelphia Phillies can defend home turf and grind out another victory, they’ll put the Astros on the brink of elimination with three chances to close them out.
Let’s dive into our best bets.
Astros (-115) @ Phillies (-105)
Cristian Javier will take the bump and make his series debut for the Astros, and he could be just what the doctor ordered.
Few players have been as good as Javier over the last couple of months. Since the beginning of September, Javier has made seven appearances. He allowed only one run while striking out 44 batters during that stretch.
While he is predominantly a fastball pitcher, and the Phillies hit them very well as a team, I have a hard time believing Philadelphia will be able to string together hits against him. Javier has allowed more hits than innings pitched just once since mid-June.
The Phillies are absolutely capable of producing offense simply from long balls; however, Javier is very good at keeping them in the park, especially for a fly-ball pitcher.
I expect Javier to go out and put together another quality start. If he can do that, I like Houston’s chances.
Meanwhile, the Astros have already seen Aaron Nola in this series and they teed off on him, generating five runs – and two homers – in just over four innings of work. They know how Nola likes to attack batters and they’re well equipped to handle it. I like the Astros to even the series and turn it into a best of three.
Bet: Astros (-115)
Aaron Nola over 1.5 runs allowed (-135)
Nola has been rocked two starts in a row, conceding 11 total runs and failing to make it through five innings in either outing.
I don’t expect him to be chased early again, but the Astros should still able to plate multiple runs while he’s on the mound. As good as Nola is, he’s a fastball-first pitcher taking on a team that absolutely mashes them.
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, and Chas McCormick (and – if needed – Trey Mancini) all posted an xwOBA of .392 or higher against four-seam fastballs this season. Except Bregman, all of them finished above .400.
With so many batters capable of making noise against Nola’s primary pitch, I expect the Astros to do at least some damage.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
