A medium-sized, seven-game slate of NBA action comes our way on Monday night. You know there is some value to be found somewhere, and we are going to find it.
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NBA Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Monday
Pacers at Nets Prediction
If it wasn’t for the Lakers, a lot more people would be talking about the Nets (1-5) right now. Kevin Durant is scoring 30 meaningless points per game, Kyrie Irving is causing distractions off the court, and Ben Simmons looks like a deer in headlights on the court. Steve Nash clearly is on the hottest of hot seats. This team is a mess on both sides of the floor and seemingly has no cohesion in the locker room. They’ve lost four games in a row (Grizzlies, Bucks, Mavericks, and these Pacers) and will now host Indiana in the same matchup in Brooklyn. Last time out in a nine-point outright loss, Irving scored 35 points on 13-of-22 shooting with six assists, while Durant put up 26 points with five boards, three steals, and four blocks, but Brooklyn didn’t show up defensively. The Pacers shot an insane 23-of-46 (50 percent) from three-point range and out-rebounded the Nets 53-to-34. That’s not going to cut it for Brooklyn.
The buzz around Bennedict Mathurin and the Rookie of the Year is real. He just went 8-of-16 shooting for 32 points against Brooklyn last time and is averaging an impressive 21.0 points off the bench for the Pacers, who have relied on the wizardry of 22-year-old point guard Tyrese Haliburton (23.4 points, 10.0 rebounds per game). Buddy Hield is a hit-or-miss performer on a nightly basis, but when he gets going, he can be another dangerous offensive contributor. Brooklyn has gone just 1-5 ATS, while Indiana checks in at 3-4 against the spread. The Nets have gone 4-2 to the O/U, while the Pacers have gone 4-3 to the O/U.
PICK: Pacers +8.5. I don’t trust the Nets at all, and you shouldn’t either. These two teams can’t play defense (the Nets rank 29th in Defensive rating, and the Pacers rank 27th), but I’m not touching the total as it approaches 240 points, although it is tempting.
Hawks at Raptors Prediction
The Trae Young/Dejounte Murray era is off to a hot start in Atlanta as the Hawks check in with a 4-2 record north of the border. Young is averaging 31.5 points and 9.7 assists over 35.5 minutes per game, while Murray has put up 20.0 points, 6.5 boards, and 7.3 dimes over 37.2 minutes per game. With De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela joining those two stars in the starting five, this team has the talent to make some noise in the East. Most notably so far, this Hawks squad has taken care of the ball, as evidenced by the fact that they average the least amount of turnovers in the entire NBA (11.7). The Hawks also rank 12th in scoring, which is important because this Raptors team has struggled to score.
Toronto has averaged just 104.8 points per game so far (third-worst in the NBA) on 44.2 percent shooting (26th). However, Pascal Siakam (25.3 points, 9.2 rebounds, 7.7 assists in 37.8 minutes per game) is off to an awesome individual start, as is Gary Trent Jr. (19.2 points in 37.0 minutes per game). Fred VanVleet is shooting an awful 35.3 percent from the field so far and is ice-cold, averaging 13.3 points per contest. If he doesn’t step his game up and provide scoring against this backcourt, this could be a long night for the home team. Toronto has gone 3-2-1 ATS and 2-4 to the O/U, while Atlanta has gone 2-3-1 ATS and 4-2 to the O/U.
PICK: Hawks +4. This is the better team, in my opinion. While the bad shooting by the Raptors should regress positively for them, I have more faith in the Hawks covering. However, after scoring 90 points or less, the Raptors have gone 12-1 straight up under Nick Nurse, so I’m not going to touch Atlanta’s moneyline. The safest thing to do is to stay away from this game in my opinion. But if I had to make one bet, it’d be Hawks +4.
Pistons at Bucks Prediction
Here’s an interesting trend: under Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have gone 21-39 ATS after three-straight games in which they out-rebounded their opponent by five or more boards. As double-digit home favorites, that’s something to keep in mind if you’re planning on hammering the undefeated Bucks, who are off to perfect 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS starts. Milwaukee owns the best Defensive Rating (102.6) in the NBA, and as you might expect, Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing like an absolute beast. The Greek Freak enters Monday ranked second in the NBA in scoring (34.4 points per game), second in rebounding (14.0), and tied for seventh in assists (5.8). If he keeps up anywhere close to this pace, he is going to cruise to another MVP award. Milwaukee has gone 3-2 to the O/U, while Detroit has gone 6-1 to the O/U.
The rebuilding Pistons are rebuilding. However, they did earn a nice 14-point outright win as home underdogs against the Warriors on Sunday night and have some momentum coming into this game. In that 128-114 win on Sunday, it’s worth noting that the Pistons got just 17 points from their bench and a crazy 111 points from their starting five. That’s not going to happen against the best defensive team in the Association tonight. The young core of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Jalen Duren is fun to watch. You always have to be cognizant when veteran sharpshooter Bojan Bogdanovic is on the floor. Overall, this team is a double-digit dog for a reason.
PICK: Bucks -6.5 1H. Despite the weird trend above, the Bucks have dominated division opponents against the spread, going 47-19 ATS against their Central Division foes. But I don’t like this double-digit spread and am worried about a potential backdoor if Giannis gets off the court in the fourth and Milwaukee’s second unit sees time against Detroit’s starters. Under Budenholzer, the Bucks have gone 20-4 ATS in the first half against teams that allow their opponents to shoot 48 percent or better from the field. The Pistons just so happen to be the worst team in the entire NBA in shooting percentage defense over 50 percent. Give me the Bucks to be leading by seven or more at halftime.
