In one of the more lopsided games of the Week 17 slate, the high-flying 49ers (11-4) travel to Las Vegas to take on the reeling Raiders (6-9), who announced on Wednesday that veteran QB Derek Carr will be benched for the remainder of the season. After Adam Schefter broke the news, the Niners moved from -6 favorites on BetMGM to -10. We have all the betting odds, tips, and trends to get you prepped for this West Coast battle, as well as our final prediction.
Josh McDaniels’ first season as Raiders head coach has gone almost as poorly as his last season as Broncos coach 12 years ago. In both cases, the quarterback position let him down the most. Back in 2010, it was Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow who took down the ship. This year, it has been Carr, who leads the NFL with 14 interceptions and has the lowest completion percentage (60.8) and QB rating (86.3) since his rookie year.
Speaking of rookie years, Brock Purdy has emerged from relative obscurity to No. 3 in the Rookie of the Year odds. Kyle Shanahan needed efficient game management from the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, and he ended up getting a bona fide stud. Purdy has helped San Francisco win four consecutive games, throwing two TDs per game and only two total interceptions while maintaining a superb 103.2 QB rating. San Francisco has won eight in a row, and many pundits are whispering that Mr. Irrelevant could be the next Tom Brady, supplanting Jimmy G once he returns from his foot injury like TB12 once did to Drew Bledsoe.
WEEK 17 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
This game epitomizes the term “lopsided.” The 49ers offense is an embarrassment of riches, with midseason acquisition Christian McCaffrey perfectly complementing stud tight end George Kittle and the elite wideout tandem of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel (ankle) has missed the past few games, but Shanahan said he’s “making good progress.” Even better, San Francisco’s defense is ranked No. 1 in points and total yards allowed.
The Raiders, meanwhile, have been terrible on defense and middling on offense despite NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs and TD receptions leader Davante Adams. Making matters even worse, Las Vegas just lost linebacker Denzel Perryman (shoulder) and pass-rusher Chandler Jones (elbow) for the season.
Do we dare touch San Francisco’s 10-point spread? Let’s dive into this matchup and break down whether Vegas can cover.
MORE NFL: Week 17 Power Rankings
49ers at Raiders odds for NFL Week 17
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
- Spread: 49ers -10 (-110); Raiders +10 (-110)
- Total: OVER 41.5 (-110); UNDER 41.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: 49ers -500; Raiders +375
As we said, the news of Carr’s benching drastically changed the betting scope of this game. According to BetQL, San Francisco had been -4 on the lookahead line but bumped up to -6 after Las Vegas suffered an ugly loss to the Steelers on Sunday. When Schefter dropped the Twitter bomb about Carr not only getting benched but also being declared inactive for the remainder of the season, the Niners jumped up to -9 before ultimately landing at -10.
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49ers vs. Raiders all-time series
These squads have faced off 14 times, splitting the all-time series 7-7. The 49ers have won four of the past five meetings dating back to 2002, while the Raiders went 6-2 between 1974 and 2000.
49ers at Raiders: Three trends to know
— San Francisco has covered the spread in 10 of its 15 games this season; Vegas has gone just 7-8 ATS.
— The OVER has hit in just seven of each team’s 15 games for a combined OVER rate of 14-15-1 (46.6 percent).
— The Niners rank No. 1 in points and yards allowed and sit in the top five in a plethora of other defensive statistical categories.
MORE WEEK 17 NFL: Odds, lines, spreads
49ers at Raiders: Three things to watch
Can Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams step up for Vegas?
Jarrett Stidham will certainly have his hands full in his first career start. Sure, he has the advantage of having Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator in New England for the first two years of his three-year career, but debuting him against the best defense in football seems like setting him up for disaster. The 49ers’ defense not only ranks first in points and yards allowed, but it also leads the NFL in first downs, rushing yards, and net yards per rushing attempt allowed. San Francisco has not allowed 80 total rushing yards to a team, never mind a player, since Week 7. That will make it difficult for Jacobs to get going, and the Raiders’ inability to establish its run game could also negatively affect Adams. Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, and Mike Evans averaged 58.6 receiving yards against San Francisco over the past three games.
Can the Raiders slow down Christian McCaffrey?
One of the reasons Brock Purdy has been so damn good has been CMC, one of the best backs in football and perhaps the most impactful midseason acquisitions of the modern NFL era. McCaffrey’s combination of speed, power, and elusiveness is special, but his above-average ability to run routes, make contested catches, and make plays after the catch are what makes him a generational talent. His presence in Shanahan’s system has allowed the offensive-minded coach to assemble a range of different movement-oriented passing plays, and if defenses sell out to stop CMC, one of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, or Ray-Ray McCloud is probably wide open — and Purdy rarely misses a wide-open target.
Will this be the Raiders’ rock bottom?
The Raiders have four things to be excited about: Josh Jacobs’ career year, the o-line that blocked for Jacobs and Derek Carr all season, Davante Adams leading the NFL in TD grabs, and Maxx Crosby cracking the top 10 in sacks. Beyond that, the Raiders’ entire ship might as well be pillaged. Slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller battled injuries all season and just recently returned, a day late and a dollar short. Defensive back Rock Ya-Sin has also been banged up, one of the many issues felt by the Raiders’ subpar secondary. Edge rusher Chandler Jones just suffered an elbow injury that ends a mostly miserable season, and LB Denzel Perryman’s season-ending shoulder injury hurts an already-brutal run D. If this organization plans to continue with McDaniels at the helm, it likely needs to gut the house and start fresh beyond Jacobs, Adams, Crosby, and the o-line.
49ers at Raiders: Stat that matters
0-6. That’s the Raiders’ record when they finish a game with 80 or fewer total rushing yards. San Francisco has held 11 of its 15 opponents, including each of the past eight, to fewer than 80 rushing yards.
49ers at Raiders: Prediction
We usually hate recommending you bet on a blowout, as something weird always seems to happen to spoil an overwhelming favorites’ double-digit cover. But the Niners have an outside shot at winning the NFC if they win out these next two weeks, and San Francisco is just too strong on both sides of the ball for the Raiders’ roughed-up, already-poor defense and Jarrett Stidham-led offense to keep up. The 49ers’ average winning margin during their eight-game winning streak is 16.6, and they won’t let their foot off the gas until they’re up by three touchdowns.
PREDICTION: 49ers 31, Raiders 10. The 49ers smash the Raiders, easily covering the spread (-10) and going UNDER (41.5) by a hair.
