“The byes are coming, the byes are coming…!” As a six-team bye approaches and injuries mount, millions of NFL fans are coming to grips with their fantasy teams being pretenders, not contenders. But that’s OK. Sports betting is legal in the majority of the country, giving us plenty of ways to win outside of fantasy football. So, let’s make some bets! It’s always a good time to wager on moneylines, spreads, over/unders, and player props.
Every Wednesday, we parse through the offerings on Caesars Sportsbook and select the best bets for the upcoming slate of NFL games. We typically pinpoint eight-to-10 goodies — bets that not only stand out as the most interesting but also the most likely to win you some cash. We analyze the stats, betting trends, and sharp betting reports to give you the greatest odds of weekly betting success.
MORE: Full list of odds for NFL Week 9
Last week was another successful run. We easily hit on the 49ers over the Rams (PK) and narrowly escaped by a half-point on the Packers (+10.5) in Buffalo. On the moneyline, the Patriots (-160) were an easy green over the Jets, and the Titans (-125) took care of business in Houston. We also crushed the OVER on the Lions and Dolphins (52), with that game sailing up to 58 total points. That’s a success rate of 62.5 percent — not too shabby in the betting world.
All said, our best bets are 18-10 over the past three weeks, but we’re not satisfied! Let’s keep up this positive momentum and find our favorite bets from the Week 9 NFL slate.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 9: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Bills (-13) at Jets
Thirteen points is a lot to cover, but Buffalo just beat the Packers by 10 points despite Josh Allen throwing two second-half interceptions. The Bills have one of the best offenses and defenses in the NFL, and they should be able to blow out a young, sometimes-erratic Jets offense that just turned the ball over three times against the Patriots.
As we mentioned in our game preview for this AFC East tilt, Buffalo is 6-2 against the Jets since the Josh Allen era began in 2018. Even more intriguing, Buffalo is 5-3 against the spread in that span, and since the start of his breakout ’20 campaign, Allen is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS versus Gang Green.
Buffalo’s average spread over those past four games is nearly -11.5. Allen and head coach Sean McDermott always seem to win games against inferior opponents, and they should come in with much tighter execution after the two throwaways to Green Bay. New York has improved mightily under Robert Saleh, but without Breece Hall (knee), this squad will have trouble keeping up with the class of the AFC.
NFL WEEK 9 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline Picks
Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Rams (buy a half-point)
The Buccaneers made us a bit gun-shy after they lost to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football, but we’re going back to them at home one last time, thinking a date with a dinged-up Rams offense will cure what ails them.
Tom Brady has struggled, but not as badly as Matthew Stafford, one of the most sacked QBs in the NFL. Cooper Kupp, who tweaked his ankle in L.A.’s 31-14 loss to the 49ers, has been asked to do way too much in place of offseason departures Robert Woods, Odell Beckham, and the ghost of Cam Akers.
Expect Tampa’s stud front-seven to invade the pocket all afternoon. Stafford is 0-11 in the past 11 games when he’s been sacked at least five times, including three games this season. The Bucs rank fourth in sacks with 3.1 per game, and Stafford has been the fourth-most sacked QB. Buy a half-point for extra insurance (making it -125 instead of -110), as we think a field goal should cover us.
Panthers (+7.5) at Bengals
How long can one team ride its success from the previous season? As far as the sportsbooks seem to be concerned, apparently a full year. Through eight weeks, the AFC-champion Bengals are 4-4 and will be without Ja’Mar Chase (hip) for the foreseeable future. Joe Mixon is haunted by threes — he’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has just three total TDs in 163 touches — and despite Cincy spending all kinds of money to improve its offensive line in the offseason, Joe Burrow is the second-most sacked QB in the NFL.
The Panthers, despite firing head coach Matt Rhule and trading away franchise player Christian McCaffrey, have shown recent signs of life. The running game seems to be in capable hands with D’Onta Foreman; D.J. Moore is waking up; and P.J. Walker threw for 317 yards. Cincinnati will win this game at home, but don’t expect a blowout after the Bengals D that just let Cleveland amass 32 points and 440 total yards.
MORE NFL WEEK 9: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 9
Falcons (+143) vs. Chargers
The times, they are a-changing in Atlanta. The Falcons find themselves atop the NFC South with veteran QB Marcus Mariota embracing the youth movement around him. Remarkably, after finishing an NFL-worst 0-7 against the spread at home last season, the Dirty Birds are 3-1 ATS at home this year. Well, why bet their +3 spread and pay the vig when we’re predicting they’ll pull off the upset? Take their plus-odds on the moneyline and laugh on your way to the bank.
The Chargers have Austin Ekeler, yes, but the way to beat this Falcons D is via the downfield pass, which could prove difficult for Justin Herbert without Mike Williams (ankle). We also don’t know what to think of this banged-up Bolts defense. After surrendering 37 points to the Seahawks in Week 8, L.A. has now served up the second-most points in the NFL. Bet the Birds!
Raiders (-125) at Jaguars
This clearly won’t be an easy sell after Derek Carr stunk up the joint in a 24-0 shutout in New Orleans last weekend, but we fully expect the Raiders to bounce back against a Jaguars team that has lost five straight games and forced just two turnovers in the process.
Jacksonville has plenty of reasons to be excited about the future, but since Week 4, Doug Pederson’s squad has posted three games with fewer than 150 passing yards and three games with multiple turnovers. Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby should be able to pressure Lawrence into making some mistakes, and Carr should go back to basics with top playmakers Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.
Cardinals (-130) vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks beat their division rivals 19-9 when they met in Seattle three weeks ago, but remember that was while All-Pro wideout DeAndre Hopkins was still suspended. In the two games since ‘Nuk came back, Arizona has scored 68 points. Seattle has impressively won three straight games, the wins have come against squads with deep offensive flaws. Kliff Kingsbury should come into this one with a solid game plan to combat Seattle’s turnover-minded defense, and Kyler Murray has a good chance to throw for 300 yards for the second consecutive week.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 9
Titans at Chiefs (Sunday Night Football): OVER 46.5 (-110)
The sharps are pounding the OVER on this one, disregarding the fact that OVER bets have hit in just four of Kansas City’s seven games and two of Tennessee’s seven. Here’s why: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs always get up for prime-time games, and the Titans’ secondary is younger than the average age of my wife’s chemistry students. Look at the scoring totals of K.C.’s last three evening games: 59, 72, 51. Andy Reid’s boys have averaged 33.75 over the past four weeks despite putting up just 20 in Week 6 against Buffalo. Tennessee is the rookie squad trying to stop the varsity this weekend, and you know Derrick Henry and the Titans offense will grind out some yards and points, too. While Kansas City’s offense has accrued an NFL-best 20 passing TDs, its defense has also allowed an NFL-most 17 passing TDs — perfect recipe for some OVER salad.
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Ravens at Saints (Monday Night Football): UNDER 48 (-110)
For this prime-time battle, we will go UNDER. Baltimore just traded for elite linebacker Roquan Smith, who will likely play an immediate leadership role for a Ravens front-seven that sometimes needs direction. Averaging four sacks per game over their past three outings, the Ravens should be able to force Andy Dalton into poor throws. If they can control the time of possession with the run game, we like the chances of the Ravens keeping the final score under 44 for the fifth time in six weeks. With Saints wideouts Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) perpetually injured, New Orleans is no match for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Best NFL player prop bets Week 9
Eagles at Texans (Thursday Night Football): Jalen Hurts OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-121)
Jalen Hurts to A.J. Brown might be the 2022 version of Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill. The connection is quite simply a thing of beauty. We know Houston’s defense has improved substantially this season (which is like saying John Cena’s acting has gotten better since his O.G. wrestling days), but Philly is undefeated for a reason. Don’t expect one of the front-runners for MVP to take his foot off the gas, especially in a prime-time game with the worst team in the AFC. Stack ’em up, Jalen!
We’ll add more player props as they go up on Caesars — for now, get those early bets in, and good luck in Week 9!
