When the NFL’s schedule makers put together the 2022 schedule, a Week 9 late-afternoon rematch of last season’s NFC Divisional playoffs matchup appeared to be a wise move. With only one other late-afternoon game on the Week 9 slate, the majority of eyes would be on two of the perceived better teams in the NFL, but this weekend’s matchup between the 3-5 Buccaneers and 3-4 Rams is anything but that.
Tom Brady and the Bucs enter Sunday’s matchup losers in five of their past six meetings. The reigning Super Bowl Champion Rams are losers in three of their past four contests, most recently getting blown out by the 49ers 31-14. The Rams’ playoff hopes continue to diminish by the week, and Tampa doesn’t look like a real contender even if they make the playoffs.
As much as we can slander this matchup and both team’s hopes of making a run in 2022, Sunday’s matchup should be an interesting battle of two teams trying to figure things out in the back half of the regular season. From a wagering standpoint, this game has a lot of appeal to NFL bettors in search of actionable matchups.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
For those looking for a play, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Buccaneers-Rams, including the updated odds from BetMGM, tips, and our prediction for this Week 9 late-afternoon contest.
Buccaneers vs. Rams odds for NFL Week 9
- Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-105); Rams +3 (-115)
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -155; Rams +130
Tampa Bay sat as a 1.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead line, and since then the Buccaneers have been bet up to a three-point home favorite. The total has seen a tiny bit of movement after opening at 43 points, ticking down to 42.5 points.
MORE WEEK 9 NFL: Odds, spreads
Buccaneers vs. Rams all-time series
The Rams lead the all-time series over the Buccaneers with a 19-9 record. Los Angeles won both meetings between these two teams a season ago, most recently defeating Tampa Bay 30-27 in the 2021 Divisional Round. On that day, the Stafford-to-Kupp connection was nearly unstoppable, as Kupp racked up 183 yards and a TD on nine catches.
Three trends to know
— Despite a 4-3 overall record, the Rams are just 2-5 ATS this season, sporting the worst cover rate in the league (28.6 percent).
–The Buccaneers are not far behind the Rams, sporting the second-worst cover rate in the NFL, (25 percent).
— According to BetQL, “the Rams are coming off their fourth loss of the season, all of which have come by double digits. They’ve also lost their only two games in which they’ve been an underdog this year.”
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Three things to watch for
Buccaneers’ offense on third down
Tampa Bay’s offense continues to be inept at extending drives, failing to convert on the most crucial down. The Buccaneers enter Week 9 with a 34.6-percent third-down conversion rate (25th) fresh off a game in which they converted on just 30 percent (four-of-13) of their third downs. If Brady can connect with his main targets, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, on crucial third downs, it will likely result in better offensive output for Tampa Bay.
How do both teams fare on the ground?
Entering Week 9, Tampa Bay (61.9) and Los Angeles (68.4) rank 32nd and 31st, respectively, in rushing yards per game. Their inability to gain chunks on the ground has put Brady and Stafford into more predictable passing situations, which is never a good thing. Along with averaging the fewest rushing yards per game, Tampa Bay (20.4) and Los Angeles (21.0) attempt the fewest rushes per game. While some of that has to do with both teams frequently playing from behind, their inabilities to get much push from their offensive lines has resulted in both offenses abandoning the run. Will either team get back on track this week?
Does a second pass-catching option emerge for Los Angeles?
While Cooper Kupp (ankle) commands a 33.2-percent target share, the Rams’ second-leading receiver, Tyler Higbee, could be in line for a bounce-back performance after logging just 15 receiving yards on two receptions last week. Kupp is expected to play this week, but he likely won’t be at 100 percent. With Tampa likely to get back Carlton Davis (hip) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (quad) from injury, Kupp might not have a massive game as he did in the Divisional Round last season. Tampa Bay got gashed by Baltimore’s TEs in their most recent contest, allowing 114 receiving yards and a TD on 10 receptions. That could lead to Higbee seeing his fair share of targets on Sunday afternoon and exploiting the Buccaneers’ defense.
Stat that matters
15. That’s the number of sacks the Rams’ defense has through seven games, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Additionally, the Rams sport a subpar 23.2-percent pressure rate, as their inability to get to the QB spells trouble against a Buccaneers offensive line that’s been nothing special. Aaron Donald only has four sacks this season, and Leonard Floyd recorded his first two sacks of the season this past week. Brady’s been at his worst under pressure this season, compiling a 56.8 adjusted completion percentage to go along with a 53.7 QB rating. Consistently clean pockets for Brady will be a killer for the Rams’ defense.
Buccaneers vs. Rams prediction
Both teams need a win to gain some momentum as we enter the home stretch of the regular season. Given the overall weakness of the NFC South, Tampa Bay is in a much better spot to make the playoffs relative to Los Angeles. The Buccaneers still sit as the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South (-135), while the Rams have a +400 price tag to win the NFC West. The likely returns of cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting will help stabilize the Buccaneers’ secondary while Brady makes more plays on third down than Stafford does, resulting in a bounce-back win for Tampa Bay.
PREDICTION: Buccaneers 24, Rams 20. Tampa Bay (-3) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (42.5).
