The NFC South-leading Falcons play host to the 4-3 Chargers in one of the more notable games in the Week 9 slate. Atlanta, who entered the season with the highest odds to win the NFC South at +1600, is now sitting at +260 to win the division.
Despite their above-.500 record, the Chargers are arguably one of the bigger disappointments so far this season. They’ve been one of the more injury-riddled teams through nine weeks, losing key players like Joey Bosa (groin) and Mike Williams (ankle), but regardless of their slew of injuries, there’s enough talent on their roster to turn things around in the back half of the season en route to an AFC wild card berth.
Can the Falcons improve to 4-1 at home, retaining the top spot in the NFC South, or will the Chargers right the ship after their bye week?
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
Below, we’ll give you some key stats to understand before wagering on Falcons-Chargers, including the updated odds from BetMGM and our prediction for this Week 9 early-afternoon showdown.
Falcons vs. Chargers odds NFL Week 9
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Spread: Chargers -3 (-120) | Falcons +3 (+100)
- Over/Under: O 49 (-110) | U 49 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chargers -165 | Falcons +140
Falcons vs. Chargers: A matchup of polar opposites
Los Angeles’ and Atlanta’s offensive philosophies differ vastly. Atlanta prefers to churn out long drives on the ground while Los Angeles wants to beat opponents through the air. The Chargers lead the league in pass plays per game (44.1), sporting the second-fastest pace of play, while Atlanta attempts just 22.4 passing plays per game (31st in NFL), playing at the 30th-fastest pace.
Additionally, Atlanta averages 33.5 rushing attempts per game (third) while Los Angles runs the ball an average of 23.9 times per game (21st). The Falcons run the ball on 44.59 percent of their first-down plays (fourth), while the Chargers run the ball on just 24.32 percent of their first down plays (29th). Whichever team is able to have success on early downs via their preferred play-calling tendencies has a good shot to notch the win on Sunday.
On the defensive side, Los Angeles’ rush defense is one of the weaker units in the league, allowing an average of 137.6 rushing yards per game (27th) along with 5.7 yards per carry (last). They most recently surrendered 213 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry to the Seahawks in their 37-23 loss in Week 7. The Chargers’ rush defense also ranks toward the bottom-third of the league in PFF’s run defense grade (53.2). With over a week to prep for Atlanta’s run-heavy offense, the Chargers better be able to limit the Falcons’ effectiveness on the ground.
Atlanta’s defensive weakness is on their backend, surrendering a league-high 306.9 passing yards per game while sporting PFF’s sixth-lowest coverage grade (57.1) The Falcons most recently allowed 309 passing yards to Carolina in their 37-34 overtime win in Week 9. Limiting the explosive play against the Chargers is a big catalyst in the potential outcome of this matchup.
MORE WEEK 9 NFL: Odds, spreads
Falcons vs. Chargers: Three trends to know
— The total has gone OVER in four of the Chargers’ past five games.
— The Falcons remain an ATS darling this season, entering Week 9 with a 6-2 ATS record despite failing to cover in back-to-back games.
— According to BetQL, “the fact that it’s November could be a bad omen for Los Angeles, as the Chargers are just 1-8 ATS in November over the last three seasons.”
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Falcons vs. Chargers Prediction
The side and total have some correlation in this matchup. If the Chargers can stress the Falcons’ defense through the air, it could result in a higher-scoring matchup. While the Falcons still prefer to run the ball in a negative game script (check the Bengals matchup in Week 7) a two-score deficit will force Arthur Smith and Marcus Mariota to throw more than they’d like. With Atlanta then having to play from behind, they’ll likely employ a faster pace that could result in the total going OVER with more scoring drives from both teams.
Conversely, if Atlanta’s able to have success on the ground, it could manufacture long possessions, resulting in a lower-scoring game. The Chargers’ offense won’t be on the field very long, and for the game to go OVER the total, they’d need to be uber-efficient when they have possession. Factoring all of that in, we’ll still side with the road favorites in this one, thinking the Chargers figure out how to best attack Atlanta’s defense, resulting in a higher-scoring contest.
PREDICTION: Chargers 31, Falcons 24. Los Angeles (-3) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (49).
