Week 14 provided some great results with the marquee matchups, once getting past the Raiders-Rams shocker on Thursday night. The Chargers, Jaguars and Eagles came through in key spots, as did the surprise underdog Ravens. But some favorites, such as the Bills, Chiefs and Cowboys, were unable to take care of big numbers.
With another full slate of 16 games, everything will get more challenging with Sporting News’ NFL picks and predictions against the spread for Week 15. This week also adds Saturday action into the mix to replace college football.
Here’s breaking down all the matchups available with another detailed fearless forecast:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Vikings, Giants get exposed; 49ers, Chargers, Lions make playoff noise for Week 15
NFL picks against the spread for Week 15
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Game of Midweek: 49ers (-3-5, 43.5) at Seahawks
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The 49ers have won six consecutive games. Brock Purdy has come through against the Dolphins and the Buccaneers at home. Although the rookie fill-in QB is playing for the first time on the road in a hostile environment, the Seahawks’ major struggles against the run will take pressure off him again. Seattle got beat up defensively by Carolina and San Francisco will come in as the fresher team with dominant front.
Pick: 49ers win 24-17 and cover the spread.
Result: 49ers win 21-13 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Dolphins at Bills (-7.5, 41.5 o/u)
Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Dolphins’ road defensive woes are well documented and this is a third consecutive challenge after loses at the 49ers and Chargers. Tua Tagovailoa is slumping while Tyreek Hill is hurting and the running game is non-existent. The Bills’ offense has been shaky around Josh Allen, but this is a quick rebound get-well game in the division as they will take full advantage of favorable passing off blitzing and one-on-one coverage.
Pick: Bills win 27-17 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Giants (+4.5, 40 o/u) over Commanders
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Giants are on a four-game winless streak. Their defense is having some issues and their offense doesn’t have consistent passing or rushing pop around Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. But they will be motivated in Washington to save their surprise first season under Brian Daboll. The Commanders will be game after a bye, but Jones will just improvise and make more key plays than Taylor Heinicke.
Pick: Giants win 20-17.
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Lock of the Week: Eagles (-9, 49 o/u) over Bears
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Let’s go back to the well with Philadelphia. The offense is rolling however it wants to play with Jalen Hurts, pass-happy or run-heavy. Here, they won’t need to choose because the Bears’ defense stinks against the run with its front seven and also can’t cover A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith with his secondary. Hurts also will be revved up for a rushing duel with Justin Fields and the Eagles will dominate on both lines of scrimmage.
Pick: Eagles win 38-17 and cover the spread.
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Colts at Vikings (-4, 47.5 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Vikings got more heat for being a flimsy 10-win team with their significant loss to the Lions in Detroit. They will rebound to take care of the division title in an impressive offensive-minded first season under Kevin O’Connell. They can contain Jonathan Taylor and get good pressure on Matt Ryan. The Colts’ defense can keep them in the game, but Justin Jefferson will open things up elsewhere on the field for Kirk Cousins.
Pick: Vikings win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Ravens at Browns (-2.5, 37.5)
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Ravens have a dire quarterback situation with Lamar Jackson (knee) and Tyler Huntley (concussion) hurt. They will try to ride JK Dobbins and a healthy running game against a shaky Browns run defense here, but the Browns can sell out by not worrying too much about the passing game. Deshaun Watson will face some tough pressure and a good secondary, but he’ll create with his legs and work the middle of the field well for his first home win in Cleveland.
Pick: Browns win 20-17 and cover the spread.
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Falcons at Saints (-4, 43 o/u)
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox
Desmond Ridder is making his first start for the Falcons and should be an immediate upgrade over Marcus Mariota because of a stronger, more aggressive arm and superior running. The Saints won’t know what to expect but they need to worry more about the Falcons’ receivers boosted by the running game. But in New Orleans, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and the rest of its offensive skill players are tricky, too, for Atlanta.
Pick: Saints win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Lions at Jets (TBD, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Lions’ offense is great at Ford Field, where Jared Goff plays his best. But he struggles outdoors against daunting defenses and the running game also became suspect vs. the Vikings. The Jets will hope Mike White goes to facilitate their offense in a terrific home matchup.
Pick: Jets win 23-20.
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Steelers at Panthers (-2.5, 38.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers are likely starting Mitchell Trubisky in this matchup, headed to an ugly duel with Sam Darnold. This should be a physical, defensive grind from both sides, decided by third downs and turnovers. Mike Tomlin’s team dropped such a game to the Ravens at home and it won’t happen again here vs. Steve Wilks.
Pick: Steelers win 20-17.
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Cowboys (-5, 48 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Dallas got a wakeup call against at home and won’t take Jacksonville lightly on the road while looking ahead to hosting the Eagles next week. The Jaguars’ inept running game hurts here as Trevor Lawrence will need to throw often vs. Demarcus Lawrence and the Cowboys’ strong pressure and coverage defense. On the other side, the Jaguars won’t have coverage answers for CeeDee Lamb and can also get gashed by Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott.
Pick: Cowboys win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Chiefs (-14, 49 o/u) at Texans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs had a disappointing outing in Denver, getting timely big plays by running back Jerick McKinnon to help save the day. They’ll correct their problems in Houston. The Texans will try to contain Patrick Mahomes’ deep downfield passing with Lovie Smith’s cover-2 zone, but that also will open a lot of easy underneath routes to Travis Kelce and others. Their active defense also will make plays vs. whoever plays most at QB.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-14 and cover the spread.
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Cardinals at Broncos (-2.5, 36.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals lost Kyler Murray on Monday night. The Broncos lost Russell Wilson on Sunday afternoon. Murray (knee) is definitely not playing and Wilson (concussion) is iffy after a scary head injury. Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien is a defensive-minded tossup in Denver. Go with the home team by a late field goal.
Pick: Broncos win 20-17 and cover the spread.
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Patriots (-1, 44.5) at Raiders
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Patriots and Belichick will have the right defensive scheming to confuse Derek Carr and thwart the offensive system from Josh McDaniels. New England will work to contain Josh Jacobs and the running game first and make Carr try to beat them with someone other than Davante Adams. Mac Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson will have success in a balanced, diverse attack against a defense that isn’t much after Maxx Crosby and former Patriot Chandler Jones.
Pick: Patriots win 23-20 and cover the spread.
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Titans at Chargers (-3, 46 o.u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Titans have dropped three consecutive games to the Bengals, Eagles and Jaguars. They are still relying a lot on Derrick Henry and the running game, but the passing game and pass defense are becoming huge liabilities tied somewhat to piling-up injuries. Henry can smash against the Chargers’ front but at the same time Justin Herbert can destroy the Titans’ secondary. Herbert follows what fellow young guns Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence did.
Pick: Chargers win 27-23 and cover the spread.
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Bengals (-3.5, 44 o/u) at Buccaneers
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals are feeling it with Burrow but will likely be without Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They also will be without their most disruptive defensive player, Trey Hendrickson. Burrow will play well and lean on the run, too, but his paradigm GOAT, Tom Brady will dig deep at home with Tampa Bay suddenly being in some danger of not winning the NFC South. Burrow still has more to help around him, including a tough pass defense vs. Brady.
Pick: Bengals win 24-21 but fail to cover the spread.
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Rams at Packers (-7-5, 39.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Rams got a huge spark from Baker Mayfield on a short week and he’ll go into Green Bay with plenty of confidence on a long week. But Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have had a bye to get healthier in key spots and there’s still some motivation to push for a late NFC wild-card berth. The Packers’ defense gets a few needed breaks here and Rodgers will pick apart the matchups away from Jalen Ramsey.
Pick: Packers win 27-17 and cover the spread.
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Stats of the Week
Week 14 record straight up: 9-3
Week 14 record against the spread: 6-6
Season record straight up: 130-73
Season record against the spread: 102-100
