Week 16 in the NFL was a classic example of how wild and wacky the 2022 season has been with unexpected blowouts and key upsets. Those results seem to keep happening just to make the playoff picture more interesting.
The goal of the league was to make games more competitive for deeper into the season and that will remain the case here with several teams playing for plenty in the final two weeks. Close division games also make for tighter, hard-to-predict matchups.
How is the schedule looking for Week 17 and how well can we navigate through it for the right picks and predictions against the spread? Here’s the latest full-sale fearless forecast,
(betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Packers climb in playoff picture; Steelers jump Patriots, Jets for Week 17
NFL picks against the spread for Week 17
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Game of Midweek: Cowboys (-9.5, 42.5 o/u) at Titans
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Cowboys got their mojo back with Dak Prescott recovering from an early pick six to light up the Eagles with a successful fourth quarter. The Titans keep fading harder offensively with without Malik Willis or Derrick Henry while there should be plenty more success for Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the passing game.
Pick: Cowboys win 27-13 and cover the spread.
Result: Cowboys win 27-13 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Bills (-1, 49.5) at Bengals
Monday 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Bills’ offense is relying on the running game of late with its backs and Josh Allen. The Bengals have shown more of a complete offense with more weapons involved in the passing game and rushing attacks. Allen and Joe Burrow also have been plagued by recent key interceptions. Burrow tends to be in more control at home and that’s the difference as Cincinnati improves it chances of winning the top seed.
Pick: Bengals win 27-24
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Upset of the Week: Browns (+2.5, 42.5 o/u) Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Browns are a roller coaster team and Deshaun Watson has made their recent outcomes wilder than usual, win or lose. The Commanders, for a playoff team, have a strange QB situation pivoting back to Carson Wentz. Nick Chubb and Cleveland’s receivers make the difference here as the QB change throws off Washington’s offense enough in a ugly defensive-minded game.
Pick: Browns win 20-17.
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Lock of the Week: 49ers (-10, 42.0) over Raiders
Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers aren’t getting enough respect here as they try to extend their winning streak to a fine nine games. They haven’t lost since falling to the Chiefs in Week 7. This is a brutal get-worse game at home for Jarrett Stidham, replacing benched Derek Carr, and Josh Jacobs after getting ripped in Pittsburgh. Expect a huge contingent of 49ers fans in Vegas, where the home team can’t stop anything around Brock Purdy. Kyle Shanahan vs. Josh McDaniels is no contest.
Pick: 49ers win 38-14 and cover the spread.
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Cardinals at Falcons (-4, 41 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals aren’t sure if Colt McCoy can be cleared to return from his concussion but they should keep leaning on James Conner and the running game. The Falcons also will stay run heavy to boost rookie QB Desmond Ridder. This becomes a tossup for the first two NFC teams in alphabetical order. A coin toss says the Falcons will win better by protecting the ball better at home.
Pick: Falcons win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Bears at Lions (-5.5, 52 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions got a defensive wake-up call by getting pounded on the ground by the Panthers. That should give the Bears’ confidence on the road knowing Justin Fields can rebound in a more favorable rushing matchup while leaning on David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. But the Lions can counter with more offensive explosiveness with Jared Goff in a complete comfort zone at home.
Pick: Lions win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
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Broncos at Chiefs (-13.5, 45 o/u)
Saturday.1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos should come out sparked by the fact they are no longer being coached by Nathaniel Hackett. Russell Wilson and the offense should clean up things and Denver’s running game and defense can keep it in the game for a while. Kansas City will be content with grind mode to just get a win ahead of finishing with the Raiders on the road.
Pick: Chiefs win 30-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Dolphins (-1, 43.5 o/u) at Patriots
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Dolphins have lost four consecutive games. The Patriots are on a two-game skid. Miami is still holding on to an AFC wild-card spot, while New England may need to settle for more spoiler mode. Tua Tagovailoa is struggling and Bill Belichick will be scheming his pass defense to force him into more key mistakes. The Patriots will build on the strong second half vs. the Bengals to even the season series.
Pick: Patriots win 27-24.
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Colts at Giants (-6, 38.5 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts are operating on a short week while the Giants coming off a hard-fought loss in Minnesota. New York’s first season with Daniel Jones playing for Brian Daboll will be a success with a playoff berth and that reward comes here ahead of finishing with Philadelphia. Jones and Saquon Barkley will grind to enough offense to help the defense.
Pick: Giants win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Saints at Eagles (-7, 44 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints refuse to fade in the NFC playoff race, but they might not have a choice this week. Jalen Hurts is lobbying to return from his right shoulder injury, but the Eagles would be smart to trust Gardner Minshew to deliver in a favorable home matchup. Philadelphia gets a break facing a lesser passing game with its pass defense slumping and its own wide receivers are key to a rebound win.
Pick: Eagles win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Panthers at Buccaneers (-3, 39 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers can win the NFC South with road wins at Tampa Bay and New Orleans back-to-back. The Buccaneers will finally take care of the division title by just winning at home this week. Carolina is inconsistent, seeing how two massive running performances sandwiched a no-luck rushing attack. Tom Brady is working harder to dig his struggling his team out of its offensive slump and he won’t let the Panthers steal the South.
Pick: Buccaneers win 20-16.
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Jaguars (-4, 43.5 o/u) at Texans
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jaguars cannot win or lose the AFC South title in Houston, as Week 18 at home vs. the Titans will still decide the division. But Jacksonville also doesn’t want to cool off and lose momentum. A fourth straight victory is forthcoming as the offense is clicking well around Trevor Lawrence, while a mess of a Texans’ offense can’t match those results.
Pick: Jaguars win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Jets (-2.5, 43.5 o/u) at Seahawks
Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Jets are getting Mike White starting at quarterback and probably are done with Zach Wilson for good. New York can move the ball well with the running game and inside passing game on the road, while the Seahawks’ offense is now more limited around former Jet Geno Smith.
Pick: Jets win 23-20 and cover the spread.
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Vikings at Packers (-3, 47 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Vikings have been living on the edge but their “luck” in winning 11 one-possession games without a loss this season is residue of great offensive design and timely defense. Green Bay is feeling it with Aaron Rodgers and this is a get-well game for its passing and running games at Lambeau. The Packers will be relentless to rip their rivals and set up a revenge playoff clinching scenario in Week 18 vs. the Lions.
Pick: Packers win 30-17 and cover the spread.
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Rams at Chargers (-6.5, 41.0 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Rams used their knowledge of the Broncos’ defensive scheme to their full advantage with Sean McVay. They will have.a similar feel vs. McVay protege Brandon Staley and their crosstown rivals. The Chargers, however, have more firepower and can attack the Rams’ defense in the right spots with Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler.
Pick: Chargers win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Steelers at Ravens (-3.5, 36 o/u)
Monday 8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Ravens are in full grinding-out victory mode with Tyler Huntley, their run-heavy offense and their stingy defense. That puts them in good position against the Steelers after they won in Pittsburgh 19-14 in Week 14. The Steelers will make it tight with their own defense and Kenny Pickett being game for a gritty duel.
Pick: Ravens win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Stats of the Week
Week 16 record straight up: 12-4
Week 16 record against the spread: 7-8
Season record straight up: 157-81
Season record against the spread: 118-116
