Week 8 in the NFL was a solid midway point of the 2022 season. Good teams played like they should and bad teams also continued to be bad. That makes the picks and predictions against the spread more manageable, needed momentum to carry into Week 9.
There’s a smaller slate this week of only 13 games to break down with six teams on bye. That’s time to make hay with fewer matchups on which to focus. Without further ado, here’s the latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
POWER RANKINGS: 49ers, Seahawks surge as NFC contenders
NFL picks against the spread for Week 9
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Game of Midweek: Eagles (-13, 44 o/u) at Texans
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Eagles have the versatile offense to dominate either running or passing often with Jalen Hurts. The Texans cannot stop any kind of rushing attack and their cover-2 zone with Lovie Smith is rather predictable for Philadelphia’s short-to-intermediate passing game. Davis Mills will be swarmed by another tough overall defense at home.
Pick: Eagles win 38-10 and cover the spread.
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AFC Game of the Week: Titans at Chiefs (-11, 46.5)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Titans tend to give the Chiefs problems because of their dedication to Derrick Henry and the running game to pound their defense and work to limit the chances for Patrick Mahomes and the offense. But as much as the Titans have overachieved against the run and with the pass rush, they are a bit too leaky in secondary coverage to think they will make more big plays in the back end that they give up.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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NFC Game of the Week: Rams at Buccaneers (-3, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have had similar struggles with shaky line play and inconsistency in the receiving corps. Neither team has a reliable running game and have become one-dimensional passing games. Tampa Bay has a little more desperation in the NFC South behind the Falcons while this doesn’t feel like a get-right game for L.A. behind Seattle and San Francisco with Cooper Kupp battling an ankle injury.
Pick: Buccaneers win 23-17 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Bears (-4.5, 44.5 o/u) over Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears are starting to feel it more offensively with Justin Fields getting more comfortable as a premier dangerous dual threat with consistent support from a great traditional running system. Fields’ running will be concerning for Miami and they can be pounded by David Montomgery and Khalil Herbert, too. The Bears’ secondary is playing better and will work to contain Tua Tagovailoa by winning up front.
Pick: Bears win 27-24.
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Lock of the Week: Packers (-3, 49 o/u) over Lions
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Packers seem to be in freefall going into Detroit. But their second-half fight against the Bills when shorthanded and overmatched was a good sign that better things are coming from Aaron Rodgers as they finally, wisely leaned on their standout running game with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Detroit cannot stop that duo and Jared Goff is headed to trouble against a sound pass defense.
Pick: Packers win 30-22 and cover the spread.
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Chargers (-3, 48.5 o/u) at Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Chargers will be well rested for this trip to Atlanta. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler can carry the torch again for the offense well. The Falcons with Marcus Mariota will stay in the game with plenty of run-heavy game-planning, but Herbert is capable of turning this into a negative game script in a hurry with his healthy wide receivers and tight end Gerald Everett.
Pick: Chargers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Panthers at Bengals
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox
P.J. Walker, D.J. Moore and D’Onta Foreman sparked the offense to big things in Atlanta but they will need to be even more on point in this tougher road matchup against a much better overall team. Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon will see the Panthers’ suddenly struggling defense continue to open up for them.
Pick: Bengals win 30-17 and cover the spread.
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Colts at Patriots (-5.5, 39.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts tried to get an offensive spark from Sam Ehlinger but they didn’t run him enough and didn’t let him throw deep downfield enough to his talented wide receivers. Jonathan Taylor getting hurt again and also fumbling didn’t help. The turnovers still might come here in an ugly game with fellow second-year QB Mac Jones on the other side.
Pick: Patriots win 21-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Bills (-13, 47.5 o/u) at Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Josh Allen and the Bills weren’t happy about their offense slowing down in the second half because of key mistakes against the Packers. They’ll be more prolific running and downfield passing here as the Jets’ defense will get overwhelmed by all those weapons. The Jets have lost their winning formula by needing to go too pass-happy with Zach Wilson.
Pick: Bills win 30-10 and cover the spread.
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Vikings (-3.5, 43.5 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Kirk Cousins revenge game will guarantee that the Vikings stay red-hot. The Commanders cannot cover Justin Jefferson and the rest of his wide receivers well. Minnesota also has found its ideal power running game with Dalvin Cook. Taylor Heinicke will have more success throwing it around but one-dimensional catchup mode won’t work too well at home.
Pick: Vikings win 34-24 and cover the spread.
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Raiders (-1, 46.5 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Raiders step into a tricky road matchup again after getting ripped and being shut out in New Orleans. The Saints ran all over them with Alvin Kamara and that will be a cue for the Jaguars to feed red-hot Travis Etienne Jr. as a runner and receiver. Derek Carr is playing too poorly to trust against an energetic young defense as the Jaguars end their long losing streak.
Pick: Jaguars win 23-20.
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Seahawks at Cardinals (-2, 49.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks have a strong formula success with balanced offense as the run sets up comfortable downfield passing for Geno Smith. The defense has been the story of late as their young players have come together quickly for Pete Carroll, including rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen. This matchup is just as good the second time around for a season series sweep.
Pick: Seahawks win 27-24.
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Ravens (-3, 48.5 o/u) at Saints
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Ravens have boosted their pass rush with Roquan Smith and have played much-improved overall defense of late with a different coverage vs. pressure philosophy. That’s bad news for Andy Dalton, who tends to have plenty of nightmares in prime-time games. Lamar Jackson will be a consistent all-around problem for the Saints’ defense on the other side.
Pick: Ravens win 28-17 and cover the spread.
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Stats of the Week
Week 8 record straight up: 10-4
Week 8 record against the spread: 9-5
Season record straight up: 72-48
Season record against the spread: 61-60
