Can USA make it out of Group B at 2022 FIFA World Cup? Predictions with USMNT, England, Iran, Wales

The United States was drawn into Group B for the 2022 FIFA World Cup alongside England, Iran, and Wales.

So, let the speculation begin.

For USMNT fans and the team alike, exiting the group is the most immediate challenge in front of them as the buildup to the 2022 World Cup begins. As much as the U.S. will have ambitions of reaching the quarterfinals of the competition or beyond, nothing can happen in the knockout stage without first taking care of business in the group.

WORLD CUP DRAW BREAKDOWNS:
Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H

With that in mind, let’s break down the group and see what the chances are for the United States to advance to the knockout round.

2022 World Cup Group B odds

Odds via FanDuel

England is one of the favorites to not only win the group but also to win the World Cup, currently with the third-best odds to do so.

The United States is second-favorite to win the group and expected to reach the knockout round, but the differential for the U.S. to those behind isn’t so large. Meanwhile, whomever comes from the UEFA playoff could potentially have even better odds than the U.S. to escape, meaning the U.S. would no longer be favorites to escape the group.

MORE: Full 2022 World Cup match schedule

2022 World Cup Group B match schedule

As Group B plays on the first day of the tournament, the U.S. players will have a very quick turnaround from the finish of the club season to the start of the World Cup, with very little preparation. That first match will come against the eventual UEFA playoff qualifier, and a result will be necessary if the team has hopes of progressing to the knockout round.

MORE: USA draws England in World Cup with Black Friday match

The team then plays against England on Black Friday, followed by a final group match against Iran that could decide who escapes and who goes home.

Group B match schedule

What does USA need to qualify for knockout round?

England is the clear favorite in this group and in all likelihood, will garner at least five points from the group stage, and likely more. Seven points is easily doable for England, while even a perfect nine points is certainly within the realm of possibility.

In all likelihood, the United States will need at minimum four points to escape the group, while six is even better.

In the 2018 World Cup, of the eight groups, only two teams advanced with four points, while all other groups featured a second-place winner sporting five or six points. In 2014, when the U.S. advanced to the Round of 16, it landed on four points, second to winners Germany and level with Portugal, but advancing on goal differential. In 2010, another year the U.S. advanced past the group stage, it topped the group with a five-point total, finishing ahead of England on goal differential thanks to the famous 91st minute goal by Landon Donovan against Algeria in the final group-stage match.

MORE: Group B breakdown with USA, England, Iran, Wales

That means the U.S. will need to collect some kind of result against two of the three teams, with at least one win.

So where do those points come from? England is one of the favorites to win the tournament, and while an upset has happened before when these two teams match up, it’s safe to assume for mathematical purposes that a loss in that match is the most likely outcome. So where do the points lie among the remaining two matches?

Iran has the longest of the odds to escape the group despite it being the Pot 3 representative. While the U.S. has only faced Iran twice in history, that includes an infamous loss in the 1998 World Cup. Despite the fact that Iran topped its group in the final stage of Asian qualification, this is one of the more inexperienced teams at the event, and a win in that match would be vital to any progression through to the knockout round.

The most intriguing matchup for the U.S. will come against Wales. USMNT haven’t generally performed well against European opposition and drew 0-0 with Wales in November 2020. As long as the U.S. gets a win against Iran, at least a draw in this match will be critical, while a victory in both those matches would ensure the U.S. progresses no matter the result against England.

Ultimately, the U.S. should have a good chance to escape the group. This is a young but talented team that will be ready to face off against the world’s best.

Who would the USMNT play if it escapes Group B?

If the United States is able to exit the group and reach the knockout stage, it has a friendly draw awaiting in the Round of 16.

In the more likely result that the U.S. finishes second in the group to title challengers England, the U.S. would play the team that finishes atop Group A. Since Group A automatically draws the hosts Qatar, that means the U.S. would match up against the winner from a group with no true Pot 1-caliber team.

Group A features a difficult collection of the Netherlands, Senegal, and Ecuador outside of hosts Qatar, but still, the lack of a top-tier team means should the U.S. finish second in Group B, it would avoid a Round of 16 matchup against an upper-echelon side like Brazil, Spain, or Argentina.

If the U.S. were to surprise and win Group B, it would instead face the second-place finisher in Group A, an even tastier possibility.

This is not to say that Group A favorites the Netherlands, or even Senegal or Ecuador, are pushovers by any means, especially the teams that advance to the knockout round. Yet instead, this is to point out that the chance of the U.S. reaching the World Cup quarterfinals — an accomplishment only achieved once in history by the United States — is better than ever in 2022.

World Cup Round of 16 schedule

World Cup Quarterfinals schedule